#30 A Founder's Nightmare
Scarcity Mindset strikes again!
Hiiiiii. My dealsheet is back! It does take a minute to put together, ngl. But first, some personal news. I got an overwhelmingly positive response to last year’s post about investing in a house in Italy:
I know a lot of you were interested in updates! I’m working with a local design studio (reveal 🔜), and I’ll show the renovation process on this new account:
xoxo Esther 💋
Esther’s Buy/Sell List:
💰 What I’m investing in
🔮 Oblique Forecasting. Yes, that’s meta. And yes, I thrive on this fixed newsletter format combined with an unrestrained editorial agenda. I hope it surprises you now and again. But since you loved this one with guest features:
I think you’d appreciate an in-depth conversation with someone who… isn’t me. Let me know if you’re particularly interested in a specific founder, an expert, or a general topic. We could dive into serious finance topics, or talk anthropology, culture, politics. Email me or comment below:
💸 What I’m divesting from
🛍️ Sell-out FOMO [a different kind of selling out than what we covered here]. The other day, Melanie Masarin, founder of nonalcoholic apéritif Ghia, shared a few stories:
“There are few things more painful for a founder than being out of stock of a hero SKU. No stock = no revenue, and the risk of losing our precious placement on shelves at retailers.“
The message echoed a post by another founder. Clara Nentille, founder of an SPF brand she pitched on Qui veut être mon associé ? (= Shark Tank 🇺🇸 / Dragon’s Den 🇬🇧), posted about the TV show selling out her hero product… sunscreen… before summer. With help from their suppliers, they can restock in 4 months. After summer.
We’ve seen it online. Kylie Jenner’s Lip Kits famously sold out in minutes in 2015, amping up the hype. But constant sell-outs frustrate customers, push them toward competitors, and even stir up skepticism: was it ever really in stock? (Kylie Jenner is a repeat offender! She allegedly sold out of her Khy latex pieces. Peep the caption.)
And in real life? Supreme turned scarcity into a business model. Weekly drops. Limited supply. Lines down the block. The aura of exclusivity fueled demand. But only because they controlled the game. Most brands don’t have that luxury. Retailers expect consistency. Customers expect reliability. And when supply chains don’t cooperate, the dream of selling out can quickly turn into a nightmare of lost sales and missed opportunities.
So before celebrating a sell-out, ask: Is this a marketing win or a business risk? Because sometimes, the thing you wished for can be the thing that breaks your brand.
Esther’s Dealsheet:
📈 Bullish news
Napster sold to tech commerce company for $207M [APnews]. A brand notoriously connected to music piracy before reemerging as a subscription music service has been sold to Infinite Reality.
i-D back on shelves as gen Z revives fashion magazines [The Guardian]. i-D magazine has returned to newsstands with a £20 biannual issue, a launch that’s well-positioned to capitalize on Gen Z’s nostalgia-driven interest in print.
BuzzFeed to invest $10 M in BF Island [Digiday].
Estée Lauder Focuses on Beauty Rest With Appointment of First Global Sleep Adviser, Dr. Matthew Walker [WWD]. Venture investment in sleep tech doubled between 2017-2021, and the sleep economy (bedding, mattresses, wearable sleep devices, supplements) was valued at a record $585 B last year.
Skims Acquires Skkn by Kim From Kim Kardashian and Coty [WWD]. Coty acquired 20% of KKW Beauty for $200M in 2021. Is Skims headed for an IPO?? Meanwhile in Kim K news: Skky, the private equity firm co-founded by Kim Kardashian and Jay Sammons, fired most of its investment team after failing to raise necessary capital.
Yahoo sells TechCrunch to investment firm Regent [Axios]. TechCrunch has been subject to several ownership changes over the past few years.
Novo Nordisk Signs $2B Deal With United Labs for Obesity Drug [Bloomberg] after its own experimental trials failed to deliver results.
Celine’s $1,150 Yoga Mats [Puck]. The luxury label joins the ranks of activewear brands in throwing Pilates activations.
Male birth control maker raising $20M to develop "Plan A" [Axios]. FINALLY?!
📉 Bearish news
23andMe Goes Bankrupt as Only 550,000 Subscribe to Gene Testing [Bloomberg].
World teeters on edge, awaiting Trump's tariff revenge [Axios]. Every Wall Street trader and economist has April 2 circled on their calendars.
Apple is Losing Over $1 B a Year on Streaming Service [The Information]
Bumble shares have fallen 43% since announcing a share buyback in February [The Information].
In Warning Sign for Hollywood, Younger Consumers Are Choosing Creator Content Over Premium TV and Movies [The Hollywood Reporter]. 56% of Gen Z and 43% of millennials say they find creator content on social media more relevant than traditional TV or film.
Angel Investing Isn’t What It Used to Be [WSJ]. The value of angel deals in the U.S. fell 64% from 2015 to $400 M last year.
If you can’t get enough of me, here’s my Instagram. Here’s my LinkedIn. Choose wisely.