#23 An Authentic Sellout

To make money or to not make money

Hiiiiiiiiii friends and enemies. I’m writing this newsletter on my phone (@substack: why isn’t there an in-app post editor?) on a train, a new practice for me. Writing is usually a laptop-only activity, even if I write or dictate notes on my phone, usually following a shower thought. Like the cliche re: millennials only being able to book flights on desktop as it’s not a Phone Activity. Please consider this if there’s more typos than usual. Just making sure you’re paying attention!! Fewer sources and links in the main body too, but I’m sure you know how to use google/gemini/your brain.

xoxo Esther 💋

PS: you know you want to share Oblique Forecasting with your hottest friends so we can all be in this little club together:

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Esther’s Buy/Sell List:

💰 What I’m investing in

💸 Selling out? As usual, I’m not here to pit before and now against each other. You KNOW I’m not a “these were the days” advocate. But, let’s rewind a little for context.

Anyone my age (millennial) or slightly older (gen X) is somewhat familiar with the negative connotations of selling out. The 2004 documentary Dig! explains it better than I ever could. The filmmakers follow two bands on the rise in the early 2000s. The Dandy Warhols and the Brian Jonestown Massacre. Both from the same west coast alt rock scene and initially friends and tour mates, a rift between the two bands widens as they evolve in opposite directions. The Dandy Warhols, led by an ambitious – some may say unscrupulous – frontman, see their star rise as they embrace a more commercial sound, producing radio hits and going on bigger and bigger tours. The narrative is: they sold out. As in: they’re selling out records and stadiums, but they also sold out their soul, their artistic integrity.

Meanwhile, the BJM go through a more extreme trajectory. A revolving cast of members, the band proves unstable, with unreliable studio and live performances, especially given the more and more obvious drug use of their leader. Despite these obvious flaws, they’re seen as the martyrs of the local rock scene, sacrificing everything to their art. In comparison, the documentary makes them out to be so authentic that you can’t help but root for them.

What I call the Nirvana paradox (art is no longer seen as valuable as soon as it starts making money, even to the artist, which is what ate Kurt Cobain) applies to other fields as well. In the art world, Damien Hirst is seen as divisive for his sheer ambition and greed. Bring him, Tom Sachs or Jeff Koons up in conversation and someone will always raise the fact that they don’t get their hands dirty. They all outsource production and don’t make their art pieces that scarce. Does it make their art less valuable? Are art purists in the right, or should we trust market prices?

I’m illustrating my point with specific cultural references, but because they represent a bygone era. You’d ask kids about their aspirations and they would reply: rock star, top level lawyer, genius brain surgeon, visionary architect, or maybe caring farmer. The final level of success – whether it was monetary or the reconnaissance of critics – was a byproduct of immersing oneself in a field of choice.

Even being in a punk bands refusing major record deals or becoming an indie filmmaker avoiding Hollywood was seen as a goalpost because it represented artistic integrity. (Quick aside: I personally think it’s not that uncool to afford a home and sunny holidays every once in a while. Having to couch-surf won’t make your art more interesting and I’m saying all that as someone who went to art school)

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The reverse is now true. A 2019 survey found that 86% of young Americans want to be social media influencers. A 2021 study revealed that nearly 50% of Gen Z and Millennials believe becoming a billionaire is a top career aspiration.

Money comes first, and the means to that end comes as an afterthought.

Visibility is key, grindcore is the way, and personal branding is inescapable.

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What This Means for You:

• For consumers: Paradoxically, younger consumers who have always seen influencers tend to detect bullshit better. While older folks who should know better (“if it’s on tv then it must be true!”) showcase worse media literacy around authenticity. No need to veer into conspiracy theory territory, but as we’re observing a new era of brands and media empires who start to show their true allegiances (political and otherwise), there’s an added need to question one’s diet.¹

• For founders: Rethink your discourse around authenticity. Nowadays, many brands label themselves as authentic, to the point where the word has lost the value it once held. Today’s audience expects transparency about financial ambitions. The key is balancing aspiration with credibility. Hence why a strong narrative centered around how a founder is the embodiment of its brand values.

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Esther’s Dealsheet:

📈 Bullish news

• Dub: The copy trading app that has teens talking [TechCrunch] A fintech startup founded by 23-year-old Harvard dropout Steven Wang is positioning itself as the “TikTok of investing.” The startup raised $17 M in seed funding and surpassed 800K downloads.

• The Simplest Way To Get More Girls To Become Entrepreneurs, According To A Study Of 750,000+ Teens [Inc]. Researchers found that early exposure not only encouraged entrepreneurship but also led to businesses that employed more women and lasted longer than average. Interestingly, the study found no similar effect for boys, suggesting that girls benefit uniquely from being exposed to entrepreneurs.

• Julia Fox says she’s writing film scripts for the “youth” who “want fresh content” and not reboots [NME]. ICYMI: My theory on known>new.

• BuzzFeed is considering starting its own social media platform as an alternative “for people who felt alienated by the cultural drift of the country and among tech founders.” [Semafor] 🙃

• L’Oréal has made a minority investment in Jacquemus to fund the French fashion house’s ongoing retail growth and expansion into beauty [WWD]

• Spotify posts first full-year profit ever [Axios]

• Netflix bets on live sport in next big battle for subscribers [FT]. In other TV news: What's The Next 'Beast Games'? Streaming Services And TV Studios Hunt For More Creator-Led Shows [Business Insider]

• Hot Tub, the first native iPhone porn app, arrives in the EU [TechCrunch] 🔞

• Archive, a software company that provides brands with a platform for their resale, raised a $30M Series B led by Energize. [TechCrunch]

📉 Bearish news

• Why Gen Z are saying no to Botox [The Sunday Times]

• Andreessen Horowitz hired Daniel Penny as an investment banker in its American Dynamism fund, the investment team focused on defence and other U.S. national security sectors. [TechCrunch] For context: Daniel Penny, a former Marine who choked a fellow subway rider on an uptown F train last year, was acquitted on a charge of criminally negligent homicide on Monday, ending a case that had come to exemplify New York City’s post-pandemic struggles. [NYT]

• The New York Times has spent $10.8 M in its legal battle with OpenAI so far [THR]

• Trump wants to tax the world [Politico]. The president sees tariffs not just as a way to reverse trade deficits, but also as a means of reducing domestic income tax. He may find neither is likely to work according to plan.

• Sustainable investing's heyday is over [Axios]

• Gucci’s Sabato De Sarno has exited the house, under 2 years since joining [nss]. From the start, he was given huge shoes to fill – the expectation to maintain and grow Gucci to $15B in revenue.

1. Diet = what one consumes. Media, social media, culture, fashion, travel, experiences. And food.