Hi. Can one celebrate near-milestones? You’re now nearly 1,000 helping me take observations from monologue to conversation. This is where I ask you to:
Today, we're diving into fashion again—not as a commentary on aesthetics but as economic performance art. The styles that suddenly dominate our digital feeds and streets are rarely just about fabrics and silhouettes. They're about aspiration, anxiety, and the natural tendency to dress for the economic reality we want rather than the one we have.
What does it mean when we collectively embrace the aesthetics of the 1% when we’re in the 99%? When corporate cosplay thrives during mass layoffs? When vintage fur coats surge in popularity amid financial uncertainty? These sartorial contradictions aren't random—they're economic indicators dressed in designer labels. Let's unpack fashion as financial forecasting.
xoxo Esther
Esther’s Buy/Sell List:
💰 What I’m investing in
💣Boom boom for now—but what’s coming next? I tend not to dwell on things, but I prefer to admit when I’m wrong to move past it.
THEN.
Around 6 months ago, when I launched Oblique Forecasting, I touched on 2 concepts that give financial gravitas to beauty and fashion:
The lipstick index, a widely-known if slightly outdated way of looking at consumption habits in correlation with bigger financial events—the purchase of lipsticks tends to be inversely related to the economy because women replace more expensive purchases with small pick-me-ups.
Class cosplay1 in the context of the barn jacket trend, wherein fashion followers adopted the aesthetic markers of the aristocracy/posh (UK version) or WASPS/old-money elites (US version) despite lacking the generational wealth and social capital these garments traditionally signify.
I wasn’t wrong per se, but I failed to see the bigger picture in September. This idea of class cosplay as a vehicle for traditional values—much ink has been spilled over tradwives, who not only cook/clean but come with their own little trad wardrobe too—could’ve been more of a warning of where we were headed politically. First with the Republican win in the U.S. in November, and now…?
NOW.
Corporate cosplay: does anyone wear the office siren trend2 IRL? Anyone who’s not a TikTok style blogger? Who knows, who cares. Notably, high (Saint Laurent) and mid (Reformation starring Monica Lewinsky, Aritzia, I.Am.Gia) brands style their designs in a Wall Street3-adjacent context.
Hard to get a proper read on the job market right now, as most stats indicate low and stable-ish unemployment rates. Yet people surrounding us—and who could be customers of the above styles may struggle more than the general population, with heavy layoffs in the tech industry and reports that highly educated professionals stay unemployed longer.
This corporate fantasy seems noteworthy placed in the context of return-to-office discussions. After going all in on remote work during peak Covid, leading to an imbalance in the real estate market, many workplaces push for in-office work. This is novel for younger generations who have never known a full-time office schedule. Is this where the novel appeal of suiting comes into play?
Source: Axios Let’s not forget last year’s mob wife aesthetic (fur coats, gold jewellery, long nails and sex in general). A year later, the fur coats are here to stay. Yes, they’re vintage, but they’re real. “According to Trendalytics, views of TikToks about vintage coats have increased 243% over the past year, and Google searches for ‘vintage fur coats’ have gone up 688% since January 2023. Meanwhile, interest in faux fur has remained nearly flat” [WSJ]. The CEO of a fur trade organization interviewed by the New York Times about the resurgence of real fur in fashion claims that “a backlash against the activism is benefiting fur sales. If not scientific in terms of data, the feeling is certainly in the air.” In other words, the pendulum against wokeness swings the other way. Progressive values (such as ethical treatment of animals) have given way to ostentatious consumption in the current political climate dominated by authoritarian regimes—a shift clearly reflected in contemporary style choices.
NEAR FUTURE.
Introducing boom boom. Coined by trend forecaster Sean Monahan (you know him for 2013’s normcore and 2022’s vibe shift), he explains it best:
The aesthetic of excess and status, boom boom is the counterpoint of quiet luxury 4. It’s looking rich for the sake of looking rich—power suits, furs, flashy cars, and luxury items that scream opulence. The irony of writing about this when Oblique Forecasting has the aesthetic that it does is not lost on me. The American Psycho remake is looming, Playboy is coming back with Centerfold, an OnlyFans-like platform. Champagne is popping, caviar bumps are a thing.
While Monahan insists the trend is apolitical, boom boom reflects a wider cultural pivot toward embracing hierarchy, excess, and a touch of sleaze. It aligns with fashion's conservative turn (think: Ozempic use + extreme thinness back in vogue, sky-high luxury prices) and an economic landscape where flaunting wealth serves as aspirational escapism during uncertain times.
WHAT’S NEXT?
No need for a crystal ball to know that trends operate on a cyclical model, accelerated by the digitality of it all. The harder the pendulum swings one way, the harder it’ll go in the other direction. What I see emerging already in limited circles is Conscious Opulence. Visible wealth remains so but pivots toward signaling enlightened values rather than just monetary success.
This looks like exclusive wellness and longevity retreats in remote locations, choosing artisanal craftsmanship instead of logos and playing the Hermès game (overplayed since the Walmart Birkin anyway), investing in tech-enhanced classics that merge heritage with innovation (like the Montblanc set that pairs a traditional premium pen and notebook with technology that digitises handwritten notes in real-time), and embracing hyper-functional luxury items that prepare you for whatever economic uncertainty lies ahead.
It's neither minimalism nor maximalism. Instead of nouveau riche, it’s wealth flexing with the allure of purpose. Just enough social awareness to avoid complete tone-deafness. The perfect compromise for those who want to keep showing off during climate anxiety and political upheaval without seeming completely out of touch. Essentially, consumption that lets you have your cake, eat it too, and feel virtuous about the organic, small-batch frosting.
Esther’s Dealsheet:
📈 Bullish news
Yope Is Sparking Gen Z (and VC) Interest With An Instagram-Like App For Private Groups [Techcrunch]. A new photo-sharing app that’s basically a private version of Instagram is gaining traction among Gen Z. Yope, which just raised a $4.65 M seed round, has 2.2 M monthly active users. Meanwhile, Instagram May Launch Reels As Separate App, Increasing Pressure On TikTok [The Information].
YouTube Star MrBeast Is Raising Money At A $5 B Valuation [Bloomberg]. ??????????
Celsius is acquiring rival energy drink brand Alani Nu for $1.8 B [WSJ].
A group of journalists, led by decorated former PBS war correspondent Jane Ferguson, is launching a mobile-first news platform that will bundle work from top independent journalists [Semafor]. Noosphere will feature a full-screen scroll resembling TikTok and charge less than $20 a month for unlimited access to videos, podcasts, and articles from independent journalists.
Unemployment by degrees [Bloomberg]. New data shows that the more education you have, the longer you'll be out of work.
OTB Group (Jil Sander, Diesel, Marni, and Margiela) prepares for an IPO [Vogue Business].
Global Entrepreneurial Wealth Report 2024 [HSBC].
YouTube says it now has more than 1B monthly viewers of podcast content [Variety].
📉 Bearish news
Shoppers are avoiding certain brands over politics [Axios]. 24% of respondents said they had stopped shopping at their favourite stores because of their politics.
LVMH owner Bernard Arnault is trying to leverage his relationship with Trump to avoid facing tariffs [WSJ]. When asked why he was slapping levies on wine and cheese while ignoring Champagne and leather goods, Trump said he had been discussing the issue with Arnault. “I can’t tax him, because he moved to the United States. He was very smart. He was way ahead,” Trump said.
Addressing skepticism on THE LINE. ??????????????
Tickets are on sale for Fyre Fest again. ??????
Before you go:
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my words, if we’re keeping track.
the 1987 movie AND the place.
I hadn’t named it boom boom, but I had predicted the shift for Magma in December 2023.
You might find this post interesting, Esther, on what a counter-trend to Boom Boom might look like: https://substack.com/@whatsanu/p-157101573