#19 Super Smash Apps Melee

Survival of the fittest.

Jan 13, 2025

Hiiiiii

Welcome to all my new readers, and thanks for the support from my less new (I wouldn’t call you old) readers, all 593 of you. Quick q: 62% of you read me from France, due to a recent surge in French recommendations. I’m guessing most of you feel comfortable reading in English, but I also wanted to get a temperature check. Are we still following? Comment/email me back now or forever hold your peace.

xoxo Esther 💋

Share Oblique Forecasting

does anyone here remember when phones only worked for calls? no answering machine, no nothing. I’m too young for that, but perhaps you’re not??

💸 What I’m divesting from

📴 App Monopoly. Right out the gate: I’m talking about monopoly as a concept, not the high-stress capitalist game (that I’m really good at). Lots of apps and social media discourse lately.

Let’s rewind:

Meta (Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp, a lot of people discussing the tech giant seem to forget about the latter) introduced AI profiles (?) to inject new blood into dormant social media, then swiftly backtracked and killed the idea for obvious reasons.
Mark Zuckerberg (Meta) made an announcement called More Speech and Fewer Mistakes which could be retitled More Hate Speech and More Mistakes (imho). tl;dr Third-party fact-checking is being replaced with ‘Community Notes’ meaning Meta’s probably headed in an X (ex-Twitter) direction. Zuckerberg is bowing to President-elect Trump, let’s see the consequences worldwide. For context: Meta reported 3.29 B people were using at least one of the company's core products every day in Q3 2024.
Meta again: Mark Zuckerberg went on Joe Rogan and said this, which I think speaks for itself: “I think a lot of the corporate world is pretty culturally neutered. Masculine energy is good, and obviously, society has plenty of that, but I think corporate culture was really trying to get away from it. I think having a culture that celebrates the aggression a bit more has its own merits that are really positive.”
Meanwhile, TikTok stands on shaky ground IN THE U.S. (all the news outlets make it sound like all of the users and creators are American, which I would politely like to remind everyone they’re not). The U.S. Supreme Court appears poised to uphold a law requiring ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent company, to either sell the app or face a U.S. ban by January 19, 2025, due to national security concerns. TikTok, with approximately 170 M U.S. users, contests this action, citing First Amendment rights, and plans to challenge the law in court.
The question on everyone’s mind: will everyone move to Instagram Reels (Meta)? Historically, Instagram has been able to cannibalise other apps by integrating their features. See: when Instagram introduced Stories to compete with Snapchat (now Snap). Meta rolled out Reels in late 2020, missing the pandemic surge by a hair, which I remember clearly because I was interviewed to work on it. After four years, they still haven’t worked out the kinks, from the small (the UX sucks, from speed controls to pausing) to the massive (the algorithm is clearly TikTok’s biggest asset and Instagram’s just isn’t up to par yet). There are other alternatives such as Lemon8 and RedNote but I wouldn’t put my money on any of them (Meta included).
An additional question in the group chat: what are the merits of TikTok versus Instagram Reels versus YouTube Shorts? This consideration comes more from a brand perspective than a creator- or user-centric view. Their assets: TikTok for discovery and creativity, Instagram Reels for polished branding, and YouTube Shorts for monetisation and long-term content strategy. Their limitations: it’s harder to monetise on TikTok, Reels offers lower organic discovery, and YouTube shows slower trend adoption.

—

We’re currently at a crossroads in terms of app usage. In conclusion:

From a user perspective: I don’t know dude, just use whatever makes you feel human.
From a creator perspective: I’m seeing a lot of content creators begging their followers to make the move from TikTok to Reels. I don’t think that’s the move, but this whole social media debacle probably serves as a reminder to diversify one’s portfolio and be present – with diversified content! More below – on multiple platforms to ensure growth and limit reliance on a single app/audience.
From a brand perspective: I’ve worked online for almost my whole career and I’ve been a (somewhat surprisingly) reluctant social media person at times. I will say this: social media FOMO is what makes a brand flop… on social media. Trying to be everywhere and recycling content from one app to another is never a winning strategy. The ikigai lies in the right product on the appropriate platform, finding the audience it will resonate with. Further reading on Link in bio for social media expertise. To go even further, Emily Sundberg asks: Are more brands going to join OnlyFans this year?

What’s the future of social media you envision for 2025-2030?

Esther’s Dealsheet:

📈 Bullish news

Is Prada buying Versace? [Reuters] My only comment: donatella VERSACE💜
Is Unwell (Alex Cooper/Call Her Daddy Podcast) trying to branch out of their late teen/early 20s female audience? Alex Cooper’s The Unwell Network Acquires Podcasts ‘Going West,’ ‘Cheers!’ [THR]
TikTok Shop Rival Whatnot Raises Funds at $5 Billion Valuation [BOF]. Whatnot, a TikTok Shop competitor that positions itself as “Instagram meets eBay,” just raised another $265M.
Shein aims for London IPO by mid-year [Reuters]

📉 Bearish news

TikTok's sister app Lemon8 has been sponsoring posts on TikTok encouraging users to migrate to Lemon8 amid a looming ban threat [Axios]. Also: What Happens When TikTok’s Trend Machine Shuts Down? [Bloomberg]. Related: Meta, Snap Enjoy Wall Street Surge as TikTok Ban Looms [The Wrap]
Meta rolls back DEI programs in latest bow to Trump [Axios]
Goodbye Y/Project [Vogue Business]. One of my favourite coats is from the label :’(
Tesla's easy money from clean car credits at risk under Trump [Axios]
French red wine in sharp decline as tastes change among young drinkers [FT]
André Balazs’ Hudson Valley hotel, Habitas, has closed. The hotel allegedly owed more than $300K in rent and late fees, plus $1.3M for failed upgrades agreed to in the property lease. [The Real Deal]
JPMorgan Planning to Bring Staff to Office Five Days a Week [Bloomberg]

Before you go:

If you can’t get enough of me, here’s my Instagram. Here’s my LinkedIn. Choose wisely.
Accepting future sponsorship applications: email me.