Dear friends,
Friends are a necessity but enemies are nice to have too. Or is it the other way around? Think about it: recognising you hate the same person is the quickest way to make allies, isn’t it? A boss, a bitchy ex-friend, a serial cheater.
My bio on a certain dating app used to read: “Looking for my nemesis.” Hostile? I prefer assertive. I simply prefer eliciting strong feelings in people rather than staying in a grey area of indifference.
My whole system for this weekly dispatch is to tell you what I’m investing in and divesting from. Items, concepts, brands. Today we’re getting a bit more personal. I’ll let you know who’s worth watching and who’s out for 2025. Am I going to make enemies on the way? We’ll see :)
(No) hard feelings,
Esther 💋
PS: you gain +1000 aura points when you share Oblique Forecasting with your smartest friends:
Esther’s Buy/Sell List
Most of the people featured on my list have more than one activity/business/media channel. Either at once and currently, or during their time on my radar. I’ve sorted them on an up or down trajectory according to their accomplishments. All opinions are my own.
💰 Who I’m investing in
Olivier Leone 1. Widely known under the overused label of Creative Director, the Paris-based multi-hyphenate is behind some of your favourite projects. He co-founded the hot-girl shoe brand Nodaleto, founded the restaurant Ojii, art directed Hotel Hana (with interior architect Laura Gonzalez), worked on campaigns for LVMH and Kering, and the list goes on. With his newly launched Creative Practice Pragma, I’m expecting bigger and more surprising things in 2025.
Joshua Citarella. A self-described artist and internet culture writer. I first came across his ideas on a How Long Gone episode, and he’s since launched his own, the aptly named Doomscroll. A “Political Talk Show Podcast” for a younger audience that has grown up online and has a deep scepticism and suspicion of mainstream media, it veers kind of close to conspiracy theories. Being handsome and fitness-focused also helps when it comes to gaining traction through video podcasts (sorry).
Nadia Lee Cohen. The British photographer is the brains (and lens) behind that Kim Kardashian video, she’s also behind the latest SKIMS and Saint Laurent campaigns. Yes, her intense plastic surgery work makes her look alienesque, and sure, she straight-up plagiarises her references. But she got signed to WME 2 weeks ago and I wouldn’t be surprised if she announced a feature-length film in 2025.
Julie Schott. I’ve mentioned the serial entrepreneur before. She cofounded Starface, an acne patch company you’ve seen on your fav celebs (on track to pull in $90M in revenue this year), Julie, morning-after pills, Futurewise, “slugging” moisturizers, Blip, smoking-cessation products. And most recently, Overdrive: fentanyl test strips. More of a marketing wiz than a product developer, I can’t wait to see what she cooks up for a 2025 launch.
Kareem Rahma 2. You know him from his TikTok series Subway Takes and Keep the Meter Running. He’s truly mastered the very short-form viral video podcast. What you may not know: he’s just released a feature-length film (that he wrote and stars in but hasn’t directed) and has a band. In 2025: the renaissance man will focus his energy and gain more mainstream acclaim.
Emily Sundberg. One of the most dynamic Substack players with Feed Me, a newsletter about the spirit of enterprise. Among the fastest-growing Substacks across all categories by revenue, it is now the 7th-top-grossing business newsletter on Substack. After an acclaimed rebranding and the launch of her merch, she hinted at the launch of a podcast (with a different editorial direction) and I’m sure there’s more.
💸 Who I’m divesting from
Ty Haney. After being pushed out from Outdoor Voices, the (at the time disrupting) activewear brand she founded, she launched Joggy, an energy drink, and Try Your Best, a rewards programme. Neither have gained significant traction in the last couple of years and I don’t see that turning around in 2025.
Gabriella Khalil. The woman most famous for launching the Cayman resort Palm Heights is also the mastermind behind SAA, a creative hub located in a former industrial warehouse in Bushwick, health food store Happier Grocery and restaurant Habibi. Her latest coup: WSA, a 31-floor skyscraper in Manhattan's Financial District, repurposed into workspaces and studios for creatives, hosting high-profile events and fostering a cultural hub. One can wonder how it all turns a profit. Confirmed via a NYT article: “None of those stories went into any detail on how the WSA building had come together. In an interview for this article, Ms. Khalil was visibly uncomfortable answering certain questions, adding to the opacity surrounding the project.” Do with that info what you will.
Sophia Amoruso. The original #girlboss and founder of e-commerce Nasty Gal. Now a podcast host and an educator of aspiring entrepreneurs through her online course Business Class. Which sounds kind of scammy? Her work as an investor seems more legit albeit extremely small scale.
Davide Baroncini. Founder of puzzlingly priced fashion line Ghiaia Cashmere, olive oil company Baroncini Import & Co. Again, despite eye-wateringly high prices, impossible to believe he’s making a profit. He and his wife have hinted at the opening of a restaurant, a business with notably paper-thin margins. Good luck, I guess.
Maryam Nassir Zadeh. Enough said3 about the one-time downtown fashion wunderkind.
Alex Cooper. After a famously messy battle for her podcast Call Her Daddy’s IP and record-breaking deals with Spotify and more recently SiriusXM, the podcaster turned multi-hyphenate with the launch of her label Unwell Network (Alix Earle, Hallie Batchelder) and more recently an energy drink. Her rebrand from ultra-raunchy sex podcaster into serious interviewer has a lot of listeners tuning out. I also heard rumours about sloppy management of her drink brand — dare I say, was 2024 not a little late to launch this type of product?
Esther’s Dealsheet
📈 Bullish
Forbes is opening a private members' club in Madrid, the first of many it plans to launch globally in an effort to diversify revenues. (FT)
Stars, producers and financiers are traveling to Saudi Arabia looking for cash. The country wants foreigners to help nurture a local industry in exchange. (Bloomberg)
The $1B Cookie Empire That Teens Love and Parents Hate (WSJ)
Zillow listings reveal what homebuyers are obsessed with right now (Business Insider)
First-Class Flying Emerges from the Deep Freeze (Skift)
Sorry, Mad Men. The Ad Revolution Is Here. (WSJ) Two advertisers are combining into a $30B behemoth to harness the data, tech and AI expertise now dominating Madison Avenue—and all the marketing you see
The Hysterical Crypto Bubble Somehow Became Respectable (The Atlantic). As a result, bitcoin loses its outsider vibe to gain institutional blessing.
LVMH purchased a 12-bedroom luxury villa in Cannes to host events for its brands during festival season for €46.5M. (Bloomberg)
Soho House was considering going private earlier this year, and now a takeover deal valued the company at $2B (Skift). It values the company at an 83% premium to its most recent market closing price.
Jay Z’s venture fund, Marcy Venture Partners, has merged with Pendulum Opportunities to form MarcyPen Capital Partners. The combined entities now manage $900M in assets. (TechCrunch)
Starbucks is the new Venmo for Gen Alpha (Fast Company). Teens aren’t just paying each other back with cash (or Cash App) — they’re settling up tabs by treating to Starbucks when they owe each other money.
What Gen Z Got for Christmas in 2024 (After School by Casey Lewis)
Rumour corner: Is Hedi Slimane launching his own brand? (Dazed)
Neon (the distributor behind hits like this year’s Palme D’Or winner, Anora) Secures $200+ M Credit Facility To Bolster Core Operations, Expand Into New Markets (Deadline)
27% of people said they’d rather give up purchasing coffee than give up travelling. (WWD) Wait, what’s your guys’ coffee budget?!
📉 Bearish
Trump's X engagement falls since Musk takeover (Axios).
US: Tariffs crush profits (Axios). The president-elect's proposed tariffs are so high they could entirely wipe out the annual profits of some large companies, per an analysis from consulting firm PWC. Of course, companies won't sit idly by and let that happen — those costs will likely be passed along to American consumers.
Kim Kardashian is stepping away from the private equity fund that she co-founded with ex-Carlyle guy Jay Sammons, SKKY Partners. In the two years it’s been live, they’ve only raised $121M out of the $1B target and invested in 1 deal, Truff Hot Sauce. (Axios)
De Beers amasses biggest diamond stockpile since 2008 financial crisis (FT). Chinese demand has slumped as competition from lab-grown alternatives has increased.
Before you go:
If you can’t get enough of me, here’s my Instagram. Here’s my LinkedIn. Choose wisely.
Accepting future sponsorship applications: email me.
I kind of love that his account remains sans post.
Such a flex to go by first name only on Instagram.
This piece may or may not have inspired today’s issue.