#47 The Surprise Economy
Can we escape the algorithm?
Hiiii. A short dispatch this week. While France’s ongoing political crisis continues, I went to see All The President’s Men at my local cinema, and I have thoughts: 1. Whoever designed Robert Redford’s costumes for the movie was doing the Lord’s work; 2. Investigative journalists could spend weeks on a story back then?? Very novel in a post-Buzzfeed world. 3. Related: holy attention span! For the real-life protagonists, who seemingly have put their personal lives on hold during their Watergate reporting, as well as for us, the viewers. I had put off watching it for ages despite its masterpiece status, but the cinematography turns the mundane into gripping scenes for 138 minutes. 4. I had completely forgotten that the journalist portrayed by Dustin Hoffman is the evil guy who cheated on Nora Ephron while she was 7 months pregnant. If you want the very lukewarm, decades-old tea, it’s all in her novel Heartburn. Read the book, skip the movie. xoxo Esther 💋
I’m bullish on
Surprise as a product (SAAP).
Algorithms rule the interface. TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, shopping and even dating platforms have trained us to expect personalisation as the default. Is it impossible to escape the matrix?
The new generation of AI tools, such as OpenAI’s video generator, promises even more relevance. But relevance is not the same as resonance. I would even argue that the more algorithmic a suggestion is, the more forgettable it becomes.
Optimisation erodes surprise. By working backwards from our past clicks and preferences, algorithms collapse possibility into predictability. That’s why every feed looks the same, why discover tabs feel oddly familiar, and why even serendipity has been industrialised into formats and trends.
Yet neuroscience suggests that novelty matters. Repeated sameness dulls the brain’s dopamine response, while unexpected stimuli activate learning circuits and strengthen new neural pathways. Surprise doesn’t just entertain us, it rewires us.
The counter-move? Building surprise back into the system. Imagine platforms that intentionally refuse personalisation.
A shopping app that injects wildcards.
A dating tool that pairs you with improbable matches.
A media platform organised around randomness, not curation.
Is it nostalgia for chaos? It’s the creation of a market where unpredictability is the value proposition.
As AI makes everything smoother and more optimised, friction itself becomes an asset. Surprise becomes a product. The question isn’t whether we’ll crave it because humans always have. Who will design the business models that turn unpredictability into an advantage?
If there’s anyone currently designing something like what I described, please send it my way :)
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📈 Bullish news
Wall Street thinks the best is yet to come (Axios). The fourth quarter “might feel a little uncomfortable,” cautions Sam Zief, global macro strategist with JPMorgan. “It’s probably the slowest that the economy is going to be, and things look better as you move into 2026.”
Sephora Deepens Bet on Gen Alpha, Readies Evereden for U.S. Store Launch (WWD). Gen Alpha-focused Evereden, whose 2018 founding preludes the “Sephora kids” phenomenon, is launching its hair, skin and fragrance products online at Sephora U.S., entering stores in 2026.
Gen Alpha Stays Online: YouTube, Netflix Top List Of ‘Coolest Brands’ (Mediapost)
Editors and writers on NYT’s Food desk noticed the “rise of tech venture capitalist and billionaire-backed restaurants” this year. (NYT) Hmmm, I guess restaurateurs have to find the funds somewhere?
Coperni Expands to Beauty With Probiotic Athleisure (BOF). The French label launched the C+ collection, an athleisure line blending beauty and fashion with ingredient-infused fabric. Gimmick or technical breakthrough? Kind of hurt that my friend who does sales at Coperni didn’t choose Oblique Forecasting to break the story, but I understand.
If you like fashion AND charts:
📉 Bearish news
Even The Sugar Daddies Are Feeling The Squeeze (Bustle). As costs of living climb, high-earners who once had money to burn on their sex lives are cutting back: “The sugar daddies have dried up. It’s a tragedy.” LMAO
In a Sea of Tech Talent, Companies Can’t Find the Workers They Want (WSJ). A divide has opened in the tech job market between those with artificial-intelligence skills and everyone else.
The Most Reviled Tech CEO in New York Confronts His Haters (The Atlantic). Avi Schiffmann says he’s enjoying the angry reaction to the Friend AI pendant. Is he serious? ICYMI: Friend, a wearable AI device, paid upwards of $1M to advertise in the NYC subway, generating IRL backlash.
Instagram Is Launching Its Own Awards for Creators: “Rings” (THR). Feels desperate to moi (The Instagram creators’ economy is facing a recession with 52% fewer deals last year).
It’s a new era at Christian Louboutin, where Jaden Smith has been named the first men’s creative director of the house. (NYT).
Esther, you are insightful as always, the surprise element has been lacking, the oddball rec that sends you down a rabbit hole. I spent my formative years in my parents’ bookshop watching them turn recommendation into an art form.
Side vent: Hard yes to everyone reading Heartburn, but I’m here to recommend the movie too! I wouldn’t listen to, frankly, misogynistic reviews like Roger Ebert’s, that were purely attacking Nora as a writer who DARED to write a more personal novel at the expense of, oh, “respectful journalist”, rather than the actual movie itself. It’s not your usual Ephron-written feel-good film, sure. But Mike Nichols captured some very good, tragic-comic moments.